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Oklahoma City Thunder
at
Phoenix Suns
Preview
The story so far
The Thunder have the Suns first round pick in the coming draft, so there is a little added incentive to beat the Suns. Before the season started it was just assumed the Thunder would hold 2 lottery picks, now it's looking like they won't even have one. The Suns jettisoned Shaq and resumed their up tempo style of play that fits Steve Nash like a glove, that's the primary reason they have leapt up the standing after last season's disappointment of just missing the playoffs. The Thunder on the other hand are relying on player improvement, defensive dedication, and chemistry as the keys to success. Both approaches seem to be working this season. The Thunder are a game under .500 for the first time this season but are about to finish a killer stretch playing 7 games in 10 days against 6 playoff opponents. And really not just any playoff opponents the Lakers, Mavs, Denver, Cleveland, and Phoenix could be considered 5 of the top 6 teams in the NBA.
The Matchups
Steve Nash v Russell Westbrook
The 35 year old that continues to defy logic and post huge numbers in his 13th season. Nash averages a double double with 18 points and 11 assists. Westbrook has improved by leaps and bounds this season but still has some issues with consistency. Westbrook is coming off a great effort against the Lakers, he had 10 assists in the first quarter but struggled to continue to create easy baskets for his teammates as the game wore on. Nash continues to play at a high level and hopefully Westbrook rises to the challenge and plays tough again tonight. Nash will get his points and assists but the key will be Westbrook's offense, if he can take advantage of Nash and get easy efficient offense the Thunder have a great chance of winning.
Edge
Jason Richardson v Thabo Sefolosha
This will be Richardson's third game back after a hand injury forced him to miss the game against Portland. He is coming off a dismal performance against the Cavs where he went 3-10 including 1-6 from three. Sefolosha got involved early on the offensive side of the court against the Lakers but faded late as the Thunder got KD more involved and Westbrook tried to drive the lane. When he is cutting to the basket Sefolosha is pretty good at finishing and has shown a corner three but is very streaky. Richardson will find it difficult to get his shot against Sefolosha, and the Thunder will need Sefolosha to help on Nash at some point most likely.
Edge Push
Grant Hill v Kevin Durant
After the suffocating defense of Artest, Grant Hill seems like a good matchup. Durant did well against Artest last night, but he could have taken better care of the ball. Artest got a couple of easy steals but for the most part anytime you shoot 11-19 and score 30 that's a good night. Durant really wants to beat the Lakers, you can just see it on his face and after fouling out of the game last night tonight he will probably be looking for a little payback.
Edge
Amare Stoudemire v Jeff Green
Green played very well against the Lakers twin towers last night. Green got involved early on offense and pushed the Thunder out to an early lead. Then they went away from what had been working and the Lakers put together a great effort to pull ahead in the third. Stoudemire is not going to be able to guard Green out on the perimeter so if Green can hit a three early he should be able to use the ball fake and drive to the basket as Stoudemire closes out. Stoudemire is going to want to take Green down into the low post and try to use his size to get the points in the paint. Green has improved his post defense and this will be one of the keys to winning this game. Green needs to stop Stoudemire down low for the Thunder to win tonight.
Edge
Channing Frye v Nenad Krstic
Frye plays center but actually attempts more three point shots than anyone on the Thunder, this is a recent development to his game. Prior to this year he had shot 20-70 for his 278 game career, this season he is 71-157, so he already has more makes this season than attempts in his previous 3 seasons. So expect lots of closeouts on Frye, Nash, and Richardson. Krstic has been slowly losing more and more minutes to the rebounding/blocking machine that is Serge Ibaka and given Frye's tendency to play more like a forward than a center we may again see Ibaka for extended minutes. Krstic needs to find his stroke and knock down some open shots if he wants to keep his starting job, and even that might not be enough to hold off Ibaka.
Edge
Bench v Bench
Goran Dragic, Louis Amundson, and Jared Dudley do not scare me. But that's probably because I know nothing about them. I haven't seen the Suns play this year but the only one of this trio I could pick out of a lineup would be Amundson. Dragic appears to get about 20 minutes a game spelling Nash and Richardson at the guard spots, he averages 7 points and 2.5 assists and seems pretty consistent. Dudley is a small forward, which fits well with the running Suns another efficient scorer he shoots pretty well from three.
Nick Collison has some making up to do, after all the time I spent defending him just that morning he goes out and plays like crap. To be fair this was his first game where he really did not do a superb job in the minutes he was given so probably last night was the exception not the rule but he could see major minutes tonight against Stoudemire if Green is getting pushed around down low, which I don't really expect to happen, or if Krstic is having issues keeping up with Frye, which is more likely. Ibaka continues to make a case for major playing time and has seemed like the defensive presence everyone is looking for. Harden is seems has slipped more into a pure scoring mode instead of trying to be a facilitator, and when he shoots well that's fine but when he shoots poorly uh oh.
Edge
The Prediction
The Suns will want to run and the Thunder want to walk, who will win the battle of wills. The Thunder were able to keep up with Golden State and posted a season high in points but Golden State is no Phoenix. Baron Davis is no Steve Nash. If the Thunder get out and run they will get run out of the building, the key will be to pick their spots and play good transition defense when the Suns run.
Thunder win 115-108
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