Last Years Preview (Old School Blogger Style!)

Team Name: Oklahoma City Thunder

Last Year’s Record: 23-59

Key Losses: Chucky Atkins, Damien Wilkins, Earl Watson, Malik Rose, Desmond Mason, Robert Swift

Key Additions: Etan Thomas, Kevin Ollie, Serge Ibaka, B.J. Mullens (Draft), James Harden (Draft)

1. What Significant Moves were made during the off-season?

James Harden is one of this seasons big question marks.

As far as off-seasons go, this one was relatively weak for the Thunder. Our core is already built, so we're not wasting a lot of time trying to trade  for better talent. In terms of players, we didn't lose much, only the mediocre Watson, the bound to go Atkins, and the virtually worthless Wilkins. In terms of gain, we certainly gained more than we lost, but we didn't blow anybody out of the water. Our draft pick, James Harden will fight for minutes at Shooting Guard with Thabo Sefolosha and Kyle Weaver. He'll get his fair share, but it will take time to see if he's go the goods to be our starter. B.J. Mullens is destined for the D-League, a total project big that has shown very little in the Summer League and Pre-Season. Ibaka is a first rounder from two years ago that just decided to come over from Spain. He's always been an enigma, winning dunk contests over in Europe, but no one here really knowing what he could bring to an NBA court. The good news is that he's shown flashes of brilliance with his solid jump shots and ability to grab tough rebounds, looking like he could be a solid double-double threat. The bad news is that he's also shown signs of being lethargic, having games where he does next to nothing on the stat sheet. Only time will tell, but right now he'll be on again, off again while backing up the forward spot. Etan Thomas was traded here for purposes of dumping salary, writing fabulous poetry, and being a 3rd string big man behind Collison and Krstic. In my opinion, as long as he isn't getting starting nods, I'm totally fine with him playing a backup role. He's certainly better than Mullens, and can be a serviceable backup when it comes to defense. And, Ollie was brought in as a 3rd String PG in case Shaun Livingstons leg falls off again or Livingston doesn't live up to expecations. In short, both Ollie and Thomas are insurance policies, and good ones at that.

2. What are the team’s biggest strengths?

If nothing else, one thing is sure: We're going to see a whole lot of high-flying Durant dunks this season.

Our biggest strength would have to be inside scoring. If you look up and down through our roster, you'll see no one that is expressly a 3 point shooter (except, perhaps, if you count our late 2nd round Draft Pick, Robert Vaden, who is going to play in Italy next season). Westbrook always drives it inside, Durant and Green take a lot of mid range shots, Krstic can score inside or off of a pick and roll, Collison is a garbage guy, Livingston likes to drive....the list goes on and on. As a result, we have an uncanny ability to score from within the 3 point line.

Our second biggest strength would have to be perimeter defense. When it comes to Westbrook, Weaver, and Sefolosha, you could be talking about one of the top 10 guard defenses in the league. While this won't necessarily mean that other teams won't be raining threes down us, it does mean that they're less likely to penetrate, and more likely to commit stupid turnovers, which is always a plus.

3. What are the team’s biggest weaknesses?

Not even the great Damien Wilkins could improve our teams 3 point shooting, and as a result, he spent the season on the sidelines, stealing popcorn.

Conversely, our biggest weakness is easily our 3 Point Shooting. On nights that we seriously try to shoot the 3 with teams that run a fast offense, you'll see ugly numbers in the box score like 2-17 from 3 Point Land. Sure, all of our players from PF to PG can shoot the 3 ball, but none of them are very good at it. James Harden was brought in to correct this problem, but so far he hasn't been shooting well from anywhere (he was 3-12 on Monday), so I don't think this problem is going to go away any time soon. Many people regard our old coach, P.J. Carlesimo, as someone who can't run a basketball team. Nevertheless, there was a reason that, we shot about zero to three shots from downtown per game under his reign, all of them coming from Earl Watson.

Our second biggest weakness is turnovers. Russell Westbrook averaged around 4 last season, and with Kevin Durant showing 7 turnovers on Monday, this tend shows no signs of stopping. We may be a team "on the rise", but the fact remains that when you have a team of players that mostly have 2 years or less of experience, you're going to have a lot of turnovers. And the fact that we got rid of our veterans during last season and off-season is only going to amplify that fact.

Weakness number three is an obvious one, youth. We're way too young to go late into games, and the only people who can be relied on as "veterans" are Collison, Krstic, and guys buried deep on the bench. The team is definitely still going through their growth spurt, and along with the growth spurt will come growing pains.

4. What are the goals for this team?

For me, a reasonable goal is a 10 game improvement, 33 wins. It's kind of a pipe dream, but hey, it's possible. Many fans would like to see playoffs, but it's way too early for that. We're still breaking in new players and have a huge turnover problem. For more info, you can check out my reasoning as to why neither the Grizzlies or Thunder will make the playoffs.

5. How is Scott Brooks' job security looking at this point?

No matter how good his job security is, he still can't get out of that damn glass box!

There are a lot of people here who are of the opinion that Scott Brooks can do no wrong. Even though our teams was a dismal 23-59 last season, he still lead our team to a large improvement over our 1-12 P.J. Carlesimo start. That being said, it is possible that we could have some people calling for his firing at the end of the season if we don't see any improvement in wins. More than likely, even if that happens, management will keep him on for another season, and if he doesn't show any improvement, then they'll seriously think about his firing. You've got to remember that this is only Oklahoma Citys 4th NBA Season. Fans haven't tasted what it is like to win yet, and most of them seem to be content with winning enough games to be entertained, but losing enough to be not taken seriously in the NBA at large. Nevertheless, if we don't win at least 30 games, I think you'll see some serious threat to his job security.

6. It's Season #4 of the NBA in Oklahoma City, and an economic recession has hit the United States. Do you seriously think that people will still come to the Ford Centre to see a losing team?

Hopefully we'll be seeing a lot more of this next season....

There's two very good sides to this argument. On one hand, you have the negative side of the argument, which is effectively summed up by my Biology teacher from last year. He said, "This team will never survive. Oklahoma City is famous for doing things half way, and copying other cities. I mean, look at Bricktown, it's cheesy! We only got a canal because San Antonio had one, and it doesn't do anything to distinguish itself. I wish the best of luck to the team, but they'll never survive." I asked, "What about OU Football? They get 80,000 people to come to their games." He responded that it was ingrained into the state's culture, and happens only 6 times a year. You know, he could be right, and if you're talking about any other kind of financial improvement in Bricktown, he'd probably be right. The Canal is not often used, and the huge Bass Pro Shops store we have is in danger of going out of business. But basketball is different. First of all, as far as the recession issue is concerned, Oklahoma is one of the most, if not the most recession-proof states in the nation. Thus, the loss of peoples income isn't as huge of an issue. and, as far as the issue of "Oklahoma City doing things halfway" is concerned, I can see his point, but I think that the Thunder are really getting integrated with the culture of the city, and disinterest will only rise if the management starts making money-cutting moves, we don't improve from season to season, or if we get caught up in some amoral scandal. Expect attendence numbers to be very similar to last seasons.

7. Out of the 4 Pre-Season invitees (Kelley, Harris, Bowen, and Ruffin), who is most likely to make the roster?

Mike Harris has done some things, but it may amount to little more than a poke in the eye.

I don't even know why I asked myself this question. These guys have hardly shown anything to prove that they belong on an NBA team, but one of them is probably going to be signed. I think we can rule out Michael Ruffin, who was really only signed for his Tulsa ties, and has done next to nothing in the Pre-Season. I'd say his NBA career is over, and unless he wants to go to the D-League or Europe, the long time NBA journeyman can look forward to enjoying retirement. Ryan Bowen is kind of an enigma, having played NBA ball in the past, but recently spending time in Europe and having next to no playing time in the Pre-Season. Kelley is a rookie, so there's always the possibility of us keeping him. Lastly, Harris has had some quality minutes, but he's a 2nd year player, so you'd think his card is already marked. Personally, I'd go with Mike Harris, but I honestly have no idea how this one is going to shape out. We might take none of them, in fact.

8. How do you see the Shooting Guard Controversy working out?

Thabo will be fighting, and fighting hard, to keep his starting job this year....

Well, you've got the veteran who has already earned his spot (Sefolosha), the young backup who showed what he could do last season (Weaver), and the new, highly touted rookie (Harden). In all honesty, I see Weaver as the odd man out here. His play style is very similar to that of Sefolosha, except he's a bit less experienced and more inept offensively. I think you'll see Sefolosha get the start initially, but Harden will get more and more minutes as the season wears on and he gets adjusted to his position. Whether he'll ever get the start remains to be seen, but if it were to happen, it would probably be due to lots of explosive, breakout scoring performances, or a injury to Sefolosha, which is likely. But, for now, I wouldn't draft Harden unless you're in a Rookie league.

9. Will Kevin Durant be an All-Star this year?

If anything, hopefully this years All-Star jerseys will look better than last years Rookie-Sophmore rags.

In short: yes. In all honesty, he should have gotten it last year, but that honour is usually not reserved for second year players. This year, the only possible detriment to it could be the amount of turnovers he's getting, but I don't think that is considered very heavily when choosing All-Stars. Jeff Green has an outside shot of making it, but it would take some serious injury from big Western Conference players. But don't worry Jeff, in a few years time, an All-Star slot will be yours. He may be second banana, but it's better to be second banana on a team on the rise, rather than a first banana on a horrible team, as Scottie Pippen once learned.

10. Is Russell Westbrook the Point Guard of the Future?

Russell Westbrook may be our Point guard of the future, but it's hard to shake the image of the horrified expression he has every time he drives to the hole.

Hell yes! He has his problems (again, turnovers), but he's a magnificent scorer, and does a great job distributing the ball. He'll never blow you away with his points, but the way he fills up the stat sheets with the steals, the assists, and the rebounds is something that you don't see often, and something that you love to see all of the time. I'd predict that he'll get at least 5 triple doubles this year, and around 15 double doubles. Unless you're talking about Chris Paul, Deron Williams, or Derrick Rose, I don't think there's a better young PG out there.

11. If anyone is going to be traded this season, who will be the first one to be traded?

You gotta love Kyle Weaver, but he's going to be the first guy on the table when the Thunder look to make a trade.

Our team is as set as can be, so if a trade happens this season, it's probably going to be pretty minor. But, the expendable guys are the veterans, like Thomas and Ollie. I'd also expect Thunder management to be willing to part with Sefolosha or Weaver if it became convenient to do so. Otherwise, maybe Livingston could go, maybe Mullens could go, maybe Krstic could go....I don't know. If you're going to pin it down to one guy though, I'd say Kyle Weaver, if they can get some sort of value for him. He's the odd man out in the rotation, so it wouldn't be that big of a loss for the Thunder.

12. Are the Thunder holding out for 2010 Free Agency, or are they trying to develop what they got?

Could Al Harrington be in a Thunder Uniform Next Season? Doubtful, but we'll see.

There's a little bit of both going on. One one hand, we do have a lot of cap space being cleared out for that season, but on the other hand, we have to think about signing guys like Durant and Green once they are off of their rookie contracts. I'd think that we're going for a mid range star. Not someone like a LeBron James or a Chris bosh, but someone that could be gotten on the cheap due to the over saturation of the market. You know, like a Brad Miller, a Ricky Davis, a Jermaine O'Neal, a Al Harrington, a Michael Finley, a Mike Miller....the list goes on. A veteran that could help short term. Then again, you never want to underestimate the pockets of someone who paid millions to get out of Seattle....there's still a good possibility that we can put up the big bucks for a major commodity. If we do, then hey, I'm happy, but I'm not holding my breath.

13. Who is the better Center down the road: Nick Collison or Nenad Krstic?

One of the enduring images of last season....

Both of these guys are known quantities, so this should be an easy question, but it really isn't. They're both different types of centers. Nick Collison is more of an inside banger, willing to do the dirty work, pull down the boards, score right next to the basket. Nenad Krstic will also get you the rebounds, but he's more of a European-style center. Basically, he prefers to stay in the mid range when it comes to scoring, and he'll take a shot from the top of the key any day. That being said, Krstic is also a bit of an enigma, because before he had a major injury that resulted in him having to "rehab" through Russias domestic league, he was a dominant inside force. In the words of Jason Kidd, he was, "one of the best centers I've ever played with." He was also much wore willing to sacrifice his body and bang inside. If there was ever a time for him to turn the clock back to the time he was this type of center, it would be this season. In the end, even if Krstic makes these improvements, sometimes he's a liability down low defensively, and he is always at rick of re-injury. So I'd say the Thunder management values Collison a little more at this point and would be less willing to part with him, but I don't think that Krstic is that far back in value to Collison, and could very well prove himself to be the better player.

14. Can D.J. White and Serge Ibaka break into the rotation this year?

Serge Ibaka doing what he does best!

Well, the short answer is that they can, most definitely. The long answer is that it's kind of a wait and see game from this point on. Both of them have had definite ups and downs this pre-season, but D.J. White is the more experienced of the two, so I'd expect him to get the nod if it came down to it. Both of them play Power Forward, so it's going to be hard to find them minutes behind Durant, Collison, Krstic, and possibly Thomas, but I think at least D.J. White will get a few minutes, if only because he has a good connection with backup point guard Shaun Livingston. Ibaka might spend some time in the D-League, but in any case, I think he'll be ahead of prospect B.J. Mullens, and when some sort of inevitable injury happens on our front line, even if only for a game, he'll get his time to shine. However, I wouldn't expect any serious time for them until 1-2 seasons down the road. Despite the time it's taking to break them into the lineup, I think they'll both be very solid NBA players.

15. Will anyone else try to become an Ultimate Fan this season?

My image will be burned into your head forever!

For those of you who don't know, I came in 2nd in the Love's Ultimate Thunder Fan contest last year, and won a trip to Boston to see the Celtics play the Thunder. Long story short, the contest is continuing into next season, but none of last years contestants are eligible. Given that about half of last years contestants were fans that dressed like that anyway, one of them was a corporate plant, and only 2 dressed up specifically for the contest, I wouldn't expect to find many more "crazy fans" this year. Maybe they'll find a few, but 10? I doubt it. Still, it was a fantastic experience, and you can check out more info on what happened here. (You know, if you're interested in that sort of thing.)

Projected Finish: 29-53

Lets face it: This team still has some fundamental flaws, a weak bench, and growing pains. If we played all of our players full-on all year, I'd say we could get 33 wins, but towards the end of the year we'll start tanking (also known as "working out the new guys") and we'll finish with under 30 wins. To me, our real breakout season will be when many of the leagues stars are reshuffling teams, and teams will have to spend time getting acquainted with their new players, whereas we'll pretty much be set and ready to go. In that year, I'd say that it's very possible we could sneak into the playoffs and make some noise. But right now, we're still rebuilding, and while we can see that light at the end of the tunnel, we're not there yet.

One again, thanks to Jeff at CelticsBlog for his patience and his putting together of the NBA Blogger season previews year after year! I hope you guys enjoy reading this as much as I enjoyed making it.

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